Residents in the Parry Sound - Muskoka area should keep a close watch on conditions, regularly check for updated messages and exercise caution around water bodies as flows within rivers and streams continue to increase in the coming days. Although flooding is not expected at this time, residents may wish to consider taking action to secure or protect any property in flood-prone or vulnerable areas.

MNR is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed condidtions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate.

TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Description of Weather System

The weather forecast for the remainder of this week is for daytime high temperatures in the range of 1-13 degrees Celcius with near to below-freezing nighttime temperatures. The current forecast is calling for up to 35mm of precipitation this week through Sunday April 13th.

Description of Current Conditions

The water content within the existing snow pack throughout local watersheds is approximately 60% above normal or historical average for early April. Forecasted temperatures and rainfall will continue to melt the substantial snow pack but flooding is not expected at this time. It is expected that the intact snow pack will retain much of the forecasted rainfall which will minimize the amount of snow melt and runoff into local waterbodies.

Seasonal daytime/nighttime air temperatures for the reminder of this week will allow the snow pack to continue melting at a moderate rate therefore reducing the potential or likelihood for significant flooding within local rivers and lakes. The rate of rise in water levels and flows is expected to increase by this weekend and into next week given current conditions.

Expiry Date: This message will expire Monday April 14, 2014 at 5:00 pm

Terminology: Notification Levels

• **WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT - FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT - WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for users such as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected
• FLOOD WATCH: potential for floosing exists within specific watercourses and municipalities
• FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities

Contact Information

 For more information please contact:

Steve Taylor, IRM Technical Specialist, Parry Sound District: 705-646-5509

Amanda Vincent, IRM Technical Specialist, Parry Sound District: 705-646-5531

A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment Canada is recommended. Environment Canada bulletins can be found at www.weather.gc.ca

The Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage can be found here: www.ontario.ca/flooding